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Author Topic: ~Brainstorming Changes to Mercenaries~  (Read 2834 times)
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Damaja
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2015, 02:11:43 PM »

Kotier, I think you do understand my point before about players trying to realize what is bad luck, or bad skill on their part BUT the headshot example that you gave was not good. Saying that the player had to resort to a worse form of RNG by leg stunning is not correct. From experience, I know I will get a leg stun a large majority of the time. If I do not, I dash, which is also fine because you are getting 5 seconds and NOT a crit. I also know that criticals occur often enough that if you regularly go for them on PA, your runs will be ruined quite often. It is safer to always go for leg shots because there is less of a chance of a run being ruined by a crit or ceph (one crit or ceph pretty much ruins your chance of WR on PA).

You as a player need to set yourself up in the best position to get a high score and that is the skill of the game. Saying that the whole game is a dice roll is semi correct but would you rather use a 5 sided dice (die) or an 8 sided dice?

Other characters are harder. They have only one option usually: leg shot. If no stun happens time and time again, that is bad luck and there is nothing you as a player can change to fix that, but after MANY leg shots, the chance of getting a stun is always the same. You can use this knowledge to your advantage.

I also think it is funny Damaja said "you realize my (bad) luck with this game". Damaja, YOU don't have any specific luck with the game. We are all playing with the same odds/chances and over a large number of games, your skill shows through compared to your luck. If we both have played 100000 games of PA and I end up with a score 20k higher, that is not because I had better luck or you had worse. Over that many games WE BOTH HAD THE SAME ODDS, SAME CHANCES, SAME PROBABILITY OF CERTAIN THINGS HAPPENING. When there is a chance of something happening (say 12% chance a critical will occur) there is a chance you will get something like 15 crits out of 100, a SMALL chance. This is bad luck, sure BUT when you do 100000 headshots, IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE YOU WILL GET 13000 crits (13%). It is virtually impossible you will even get 12500 crits.

Read the first 3 paragraphs from this: https://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html
ESPECIALLY the 3rd paragraph, it gives a beautiful example of what I'm trying to say with coin flips.

Damaja, I'm not trying to rip you, but when you read my first post and then say how bad "YOUR" luck is, you clearly didn't take the time to understand what I was saying at first.

We are all playing the same exact game with the same odds built in. Sure, if we all played 3 games EVER, and then set the game down, the scores would most likely be determined by luck. But, since we have all played thousands upon thousands of games, the chances will always even out (example: EVERY players crit rate will always be 12%). In other words, we are all given the same opportunity.

It's funny because when I had to take statistics in school and we looked at the topic of "luck" I used to try and apply it to mercenaries lol!!! I'm a loser. I'm not trying to be a smart ass or put people down on their views, just trying to let people see another view of the luck side of the game.

I want people to really read this and try to understand what I'm saying (it's hard to convey my ideas in the best possible way). Do not just comment something like "I've played this game enough to know I have shit luck" because I would have written all of this for nothing.

Read the first 3 paragraphs of the link above FULLY, and then reply to my comment on your views. This discussion is actually pretty good, and no fighting a be-littling.

EDIT: Read the 4th paragraph as well!! It tells you the odds of simply getting 1200 out of 2000 guesses correct of heads or tails. (Having 60% success compared to 50%). Compare this to something like headshots or ANY other probability in the game.

it doesn't take a wall of text or the theory of probability to explain this games unending shenanigans. because having 14:40 at 145 more times than i can count with no 1100k sounds more like bad luck than anything else. if u ask me, placebo has a big effect on this game and the players.
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stLmpp
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2015, 02:19:48 PM »

Kotier, I think you do understand my point before about players trying to realize what is bad luck, or bad skill on their part BUT the headshot example that you gave was not good. Saying that the player had to resort to a worse form of RNG by leg stunning is not correct. From experience, I know I will get a leg stun a large majority of the time. If I do not, I dash, which is also fine because you are getting 5 seconds and NOT a crit. I also know that criticals occur often enough that if you regularly go for them on PA, your runs will be ruined quite often. It is safer to always go for leg shots because there is less of a chance of a run being ruined by a crit or ceph (one crit or ceph pretty much ruins your chance of WR on PA).

You as a player need to set yourself up in the best position to get a high score and that is the skill of the game. Saying that the whole game is a dice roll is semi correct but would you rather use a 5 sided dice (die) or an 8 sided dice?

Other characters are harder. They have only one option usually: leg shot. If no stun happens time and time again, that is bad luck and there is nothing you as a player can change to fix that, but after MANY leg shots, the chance of getting a stun is always the same. You can use this knowledge to your advantage.

I also think it is funny Damaja said "you realize my (bad) luck with this game". Damaja, YOU don't have any specific luck with the game. We are all playing with the same odds/chances and over a large number of games, your skill shows through compared to your luck. If we both have played 100000 games of PA and I end up with a score 20k higher, that is not because I had better luck or you had worse. Over that many games WE BOTH HAD THE SAME ODDS, SAME CHANCES, SAME PROBABILITY OF CERTAIN THINGS HAPPENING. When there is a chance of something happening (say 12% chance a critical will occur) there is a chance you will get something like 15 crits out of 100, a SMALL chance. This is bad luck, sure BUT when you do 100000 headshots, IT IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE YOU WILL GET 13000 crits (13%). It is virtually impossible you will even get 12500 crits.

Read the first 3 paragraphs from this: https://www.fourmilab.ch/rpkp/experiments/statistics.html
ESPECIALLY the 3rd paragraph, it gives a beautiful example of what I'm trying to say with coin flips.

Damaja, I'm not trying to rip you, but when you read my first post and then say how bad "YOUR" luck is, you clearly didn't take the time to understand what I was saying at first.

We are all playing the same exact game with the same odds built in. Sure, if we all played 3 games EVER, and then set the game down, the scores would most likely be determined by luck. But, since we have all played thousands upon thousands of games, the chances will always even out (example: EVERY players crit rate will always be 12%). In other words, we are all given the same opportunity.

It's funny because when I had to take statistics in school and we looked at the topic of "luck" I used to try and apply it to mercenaries lol!!! I'm a loser. I'm not trying to be a smart ass or put people down on their views, just trying to let people see another view of the luck side of the game.

I want people to really read this and try to understand what I'm saying (it's hard to convey my ideas in the best possible way). Do not just comment something like "I've played this game enough to know I have shit luck" because I would have written all of this for nothing.

Read the first 3 paragraphs of the link above FULLY, and then reply to my comment on your views. This discussion is actually pretty good, and no fighting a be-littling.

EDIT: Read the 4th paragraph as well!! It tells you the odds of simply getting 1200 out of 2000 guesses correct of heads or tails. (Having 60% success compared to 50%). Compare this to something like headshots or ANY other probability in the game.

it doesn't take a wall of text or the theory of probability to explain this games unending shenanigans. because having 14:40 at 145 more times than i can count with no 1100k sounds more like bad luck than anything else.

Luck doesn't exist.
It's just a thing that people blame when things don't happen the way they want.
What really exists is probability.

Btw, 14:40 at 145 without the last timers, right?
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« Reply #17 on: September 18, 2015, 02:36:59 PM »

OMG thank you stlmpp. And damaja, that wall of text still didn't get you to understand. I'm saying that there is no way having 14:40 at 145 that many times and not getting 1100k could be bad luck. It's not possible. If you play the game correctly, having 14:40 at 145 has a certain probability of working out. Let's say that probability is 10% (which is low). Let's say you've had 14:40 at 145, 100 times. It is almost impossible that bad luck would cause you to not get 1100k because theoretically, you will get it 10 times.

I said to read my post and think about it and to not respond about "your" bad luck, but you still did.

We all play under the same conditions and we all have the same luck. Many of us have 1100k so you have the same opportunities as us to get 1100k

There is no special force stopping you, only yourself

Additional Post Merged: September 18, 2015, 02:45:31 PM
Do not just comment something like "I've played this game enough to know I have shit luck"

it doesn't take a wall of text or the theory of probability to explain this games unending shenanigans.
« Last Edit: September 18, 2015, 02:45:31 PM by Synyster » Logged

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« Reply #18 on: September 18, 2015, 06:14:19 PM »

i'm pretty sure alot of shit in mercs is RNG related. crits, leg stuns, spawns. if it were really a fixed probability rate at which things occur, i'm sure that outcomes would be different. like, if i were to shoot 100 enemies in the face, maybe 15 crits would occur and 53 would occur during another trial. RNG = good/bad luck.

anyway, you do make some credible points, Syn. but don't bother arguing about it with me further. i'm an old soul when it comes to mercs and my opinions and mentality on the subject is hardened.
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« Reply #19 on: September 18, 2015, 06:34:02 PM »

Ya, you would get 15 one game and 50 another, but that is only 2 trials. In the long run (thousands of trials). The rate would be 12 percent.

Additional Post Merged: September 18, 2015, 06:34:45 PM
You just don't understand what I'm saying. You're saying exactly what I'm trying to prove is not true. But I can't explain it any other way
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SixPockets392
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« Reply #20 on: September 18, 2015, 09:08:22 PM »

i get what syn is saying. out of all the thousands upon thousands of games we've played the probabilities even out. at that point the only thing holding you back is yourself.

Synester, I remember when you mentioned in a call that having luck in a game like this makes it hard to judge a bad run either because a player was actually "doing bad" as apposed to them just having bad luck. As an example you mentioned that someone could claim to get too many crits in a game (let's assume they're playing Wesker), and it ultimately has them loose too much time because of the bullet kills or getting Cephalos in the process. Realistically they could have been going for more leg shots prior to those head-shots, but due to the lack of stuns they receive from the luck aspect (they were probably forced to use extra health and dash enemies that were weakened because of no stuns) they decided to try and go for head shots more often because at least if the game doesn't give you a critical hit, it's a guaranteed stun. (On Experimental Facility, even head shot stuns are not guaranteed and based on luck, but an every other stage they are)
 
so someone who doesn't agree with me can say it was the player's fault for relying on head-shots and not shooting the leg more, but that's simply telling them to resort to a worse form of RNG with loosing extra health to dash from no stuns, and they could also be low on health already by doing that earlier and imply have no choice but to try for a more "RNG-Safe" option.

sorry this is a retarded example. no stun is vastly preferred to chancing a crit or ceph.

Leg stuns are NEVER guaranteed to happen.

straight up wrong bro. get grabbed and shoot leg = leg stun. you know this but you said NEVER!!!
« Last Edit: September 18, 2015, 09:13:06 PM by SixPockets392 » Logged

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« Reply #21 on: September 18, 2015, 10:00:43 PM »

I'm just going to post a conversation between me and Sixpockets on skype (with his permission) since it would take me a bit too long to write another post myself (although I will make a more detailed reply in the future. This topic deserves a thread of it's own in my opinion)

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[7:28:56 PM] KotierWolf: If there is a situation where Wesker get's little to no stuns throughout the game and is forced to Dash often, he would more than likely be at really low health.
If no other enemies around you can simply heal through it, but if there are enemies around you will have to find time to heal up while still keeping up the time.
Now if you are out of aid sprays, and you didn't get any leg stuns, and say you can't dash. You're going to have no choice but to go for a head shot right? Because you can't dash, and going for no stun is a double edged sword.
[7:29:34 PM] KotierWolf: I'm basically saying RNG can lead you to lose health often, and go for a more safe option for a head shot and try to at least get a melee that way as wesker.
[7:29:56 PM] KotierWolf: Yeah head shots can lead to a more fucked choice with a ceph or a crit
[7:30:03 PM] KotierWolf: but sometimes that's the only choice you have
[7:30:13 PM] KotierWolf: especially in a group, with no healing or health left
[7:30:29 PM] KotierWolf: risk no stuns? Or a multi kill cobra strike with a head shot?
[7:30:32 PM] KotierWolf: RNG can have that happen
[7:30:40 PM] KotierWolf: and it won't be because of Wesker skill
[7:30:51 PM] KotierWolf: (although it could because health management is one of the skill factors)
[7:31:03 PM] KotierWolf: but it will be because the game randomness forced you there
[7:31:09 PM] KotierWolf: I've had games sometimes where that happened
[7:31:22 PM] KotierWolf: and I was forced to bullet kill many enemies because I didn't want to go for a head shot
[7:31:26 PM] KotierWolf: and I couldn't dash
[7:31:29 PM] KotierWolf: and no herbs dropped
[7:31:38 PM] KotierWolf: and the game was good up to that point
[7:31:41 PM] KotierWolf: I think it was on PS3
[7:31:49 PM] KotierWolf: My fault? Maybe
[7:32:12 PM] KotierWolf: but when it came to the game's choices I could have easily brought everything back and kept building time
[7:32:21 PM] KotierWolf: but game said NOPE at that point
[7:33:43 PM] SixPockets-: yea if that was the situation you should prob headshot. but wesker should be dashing a ton anyway and they should be able to connect the no stun dash to a double which would make it more than worth the health cost
[7:34:05 PM] SixPockets-: also some runs just arent meant to be, thats when you restart
[7:34:35 PM] SixPockets-: should be able to connect the no stun to a double some of the time i meant
[7:34:43 PM] KotierWolf: Restarts are the best way to mitigate the RNG, just start it over <3
[7:34:45 PM] KotierWolf: but
[7:34:49 PM] KotierWolf: the point is
[7:38:32 PM] KotierWolf: Yeah a skilled Wesker can usually avoid that situation:
perfect knee cannon connects, well set up dashes, etc. You can even manage your health well enough so that you will always have a dash available no matter what.

However, there will almost always be groups of enemies around to ruin your day with a dash, or no stuns, or critical shots that will force you to improvise. And when that happens (maybe it could be because of just ONE mistake) - you're left with RNG and luck to decide whether or not you can make up for a mistake, or save a game completely.

Characters other than wesker are always at the mercy of Luck due to their playstyle (Sheva Tribal is the best example. She only starts off with a couple of safe tools that always lead to some result, but after they are used up, all luck. Knife stuns, grenade drops, etc.)
[7:39:38 PM] KotierWolf: All this can lead to a luck battle with wesker
. getting hit out of dashes
. groups of enemies (if not handled properly in a short amount of time)
. bosses spawning at bad times
. running out of ammo (not your fault)
[7:39:52 PM] KotierWolf: low health
[7:40:12 PM] KotierWolf: All that will lead to you fighting to save a game
[7:40:15 PM] KotierWolf: with Luck
[7:40:38 PM] SixPockets-: yea but play enough and you will get your good high scoring games. which is what syn was trying to say
[7:41:25 PM] KotierWolf: It shouldn't be a game of "when will we get our score" it should be a game of "Will we do well enough this time to get our score" is the point.
[7:41:59 PM] KotierWolf: Luck in any aspect will potentially ruin a game completely, or make it fun. But that's not right in my opinion. You can have some luck in a game, but don't make it a major factor.
[7:42:47 PM] SixPockets-: then the more skillful you are the sooner you will get that game. lol
[7:43:24 PM] KotierWolf: May post this conversation as a reply on the site also. Too lazy to type again, lol
[7:43:32 PM] KotierWolf: Up to you though
[7:43:56 PM] SixPockets-: when i was playing more often a few months ago i was able to consistantly get 9:30 games on pa solo. its just a matter of time before the 10 minute game shows up
[7:44:12 PM] SixPockets-: yea post the convo
[7:46:13 PM] KotierWolf: Yeah but I bet certain things that happened in those games ruined you getting 10 minute games sooner.
I great test would be to have to non wesker players consistency "do well" in some sessions DUO or Solo, see what scores they end up getting and analyze what happens during those games.

I bet in EVERY single game played by anyone, something or a series of things happen they have no control over that makes them waste time or hold them back from a potential score they could, or could have gotten.
[7:47:47 PM] KotierWolf: If scores were kept track of
[7:47:58 PM] KotierWolf: I'm sure they would all be different
[7:48:10 PM] KotierWolf: Since this game relies on building time
[7:48:14 PM] KotierWolf: and every second is important
[7:48:38 PM] KotierWolf: little things like bad luck WILL ruin a score because some things take a huge gap of time away from you
[7:48:48 PM] KotierWolf: and it's usually not the player's fault
[7:50:25 PM] SixPockets-: but a good player will recover. and if not restart it wasnt meant to be. lol
[7:50:43 PM] SixPockets-: do your study, but youre wrong. youll have to face facts eventually

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What I'm basically getting at here is, you will definately be faced with luck on a daily basis with any character besides Wesker, and I've explained that already. However if you are playing Wesker STARS, you will be forced to engage in a luck battle if you make ONE mistake. In a perfect game (or we'll just say a good game) with little to no mistakes, then it would be safe to assume that there wasn't much luck holding you back, and you worked for the ending score. If there were struggling points within the game, I guarantee you relied on an RNG choice from the game in some aspect of that run and it either went well or didn't which would show in the ending score.  


To Synyster:
I haven't checked out that link yet, but I will get on it :)
« Last Edit: September 18, 2015, 10:10:41 PM by KotierWolf » Logged

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« Reply #22 on: September 18, 2015, 10:13:40 PM »

each play session begins with rng: getting the spawn you want
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« Reply #23 on: September 18, 2015, 10:23:54 PM »

Kotier, you're using to specific of an approach. Don't think of whether to headshot or leg shot. Think of it like this: we all have the exact same chance of certain things happening (12 percent crit rate). There are certain games where bad luck or good luck occurs but over a certain amount of games played, the statistics programmed into the game MUST remain true. We all have the same statistics and odds to work with so we are all on an even playing field. No one player is luckier than another. Sure, someone might get a really lucky game but EVERYONE has an equal chance of getting a lucky game. Probabilities don't lie and they are physically programmed into the game, the only person holding you back from getting a score is yourself. Answer this question kotier and damaja: how are there professional poker players when that whole game is luck based? Are they just way luckier than the average player? No. Luck is something constructed by the human mind, it is not real.

Additional Post Merged: September 18, 2015, 10:26:13 PM
Poker players use the odds of the game to make their decisions and ultimately, in the long run, make money from it. Sure, one day they may lose 100000 but in the long run, because of statistics, their SKILL males them money

Additional Post Merged: September 18, 2015, 10:27:53 PM
Kotier, there is RNG in this game, if not all games. In the end though, its the desicions of the player that determines their scores, not RNG
« Last Edit: September 18, 2015, 10:27:53 PM by Synyster » Logged

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« Reply #24 on: September 18, 2015, 10:43:49 PM »

Kotier, you're using to specific of an approach. Don't think of whether to headshot or leg shot. Think of it like this: we all have the exact same chance of certain things happening (12 percent crit rate). There are certain games where bad luck or good luck occurs but over a certain amount of games played, the statistics programmed into the game MUST remain true. We all have the same statistics and odds to work with so we are all on an even playing field. No one player is luckier than another. Sure, someone might get a really lucky game but EVERYONE has an equal chance of getting a lucky game. Probabilities don't lie and they are physically programmed into the game, the only person holding you back from getting a score is yourself. Answer this question kotier and damaja: how are there professional poker players when that whole game is luck based? Are they just way luckier than the average player? No. Luck is something constructed by the human mind, it is not real.

Additional Post Merged: September 18, 2015, 10:26:13 PM
Poker players use the odds of the game to make their decisions and ultimately, in the long run, make money from it. Sure, one day they may lose 100000 but in the long run, because of statistics, their SKILL males them money

Additional Post Merged: September 18, 2015, 10:27:53 PM
Kotier, there is RNG in this game, if not all games. In the end though, its the desicions of the player that determines their scores, not RNG

Don't know much about Poker, but I heard a about it from a friend fairly recently. Apparently (according to him) poker isn't really about what you get, but how you deal with what you get. Pretty much who is the best liar or bluffer. You don't want people to know you have good cards, and you don't want people knowing you have bad cards either. Too confusing, I don't gamble so.... but still you need certain cards to win.
Besides poker, I have other people who agree with me that the majority of card games are luck based, and even on a game like Heartstone I'm sure there have been games where players are forced to concede because of a bad hand.

I agree we are all given the same potential and working the same numbers, and everyone deals with these certain numbers differently. However it doesn't change the fact what we are given to work with is not necessarily something we have full control over. Even if you play Wesker, I'm not afraid to say that no matter what character you go, scores will not always be the same even if you are 100% consistent in your choices or game play. That's simply because RNG is never consistent, luck isn't consistent. If you are going for the best score possible you're going to need good luck, or in your view dealing with the numbers given to us because the luck in this game does affect you every second. Like a said before time is the major factor in this game, and every second counts. If your not getting good results in that time frame that's a lot of potential lost, and in my opinion that's not terrible design, but it's not good game design either.

You can deal with the numbers as well as you want, you won't be able to control a point where bad RNG or bad luck still has the potential to take a good game or a potential good score away from you.
Or in a card game, you can play your hand well, but then an opponent can get a luck draw to turn it around, or they won't get anything to draw to defend against your play style. Not much you can do about that, no other way to deign a card game like that, but it's still a faulty design.
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« Reply #25 on: September 19, 2015, 12:44:13 AM »

Yes there are points where "bad luck" cripples you and there is nothing you can do, I'm not denying that. I'm saying that over hundreds and thousands of games, probabilities of that bad luck (example: getting a crit) will even out the same for every player (every player here has a 12 percent crit rate). You need to account for this in your gameplay and make decisions about when and how often you take a calculated risk and go for that headshot.

Yes kotier, all card games are "luck" based, I agree with that. But professional hearthstone or poker players are not simply more lucky than the average Joe. They know the correct decisions to make in order to swing probabilities in their favor.

My argument isn't that luck isn't involved in single games, there is always probabilities of everything happening (chance of leg stun, chance of a spawn). I'm saying that since there are probabilities programmed into the game or into a card game and everyone works with these same probabilities, so the determining factor of who has better scores is skill.

I need you to tell me why there is such a thing as a professional poker or hearthstone player and I can guarantee that by your logic, it is impossible.

Luck is not faulty design, and RNG is ALWAYS consistent. If the game is programmed to get a critical 12 percent of the time, everyone here will get a critical 12 percent of the time.

I can't explain my view any better but maybe sixpockets can, I don't wanna type virtually the same thing a different way over and over
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« Reply #26 on: September 19, 2015, 12:54:36 AM »

ill try to dumb it down.

no1 lucky or unlucky

everytime you do something every1 have same chance do

therefore skill always win

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« Reply #27 on: September 19, 2015, 12:56:23 AM »

ill try to dumb it down.

no1 lucky or unlucky

everytime you do something every1 have same chance do

therefore skill always win



Thank you lol

Additional Post Merged: September 19, 2015, 12:56:55 AM
Kotier, read the link from earlier please
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XBL: RE Synyster | PSN: Goosepantsthe2nd | GFWL: Synyster PC | Steam: Kingsynyster
Bocaj1010
Ada Wong
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bocaj1010
« Reply #28 on: September 19, 2015, 02:04:10 AM »

In retrospect this game makes me sick to my stomach. There were plenty of fun times, but the thought of ever grinding a map again for a score is nauseating. fuck cephalos and crits.
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Damaja
Sidewinder
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DashKiller90
« Reply #29 on: September 19, 2015, 06:18:39 AM »

you guys are really going all out to explain this games luck factor. the luck in this game is mostly situational so stop trying to explain with statistics and probability, because it's honestly not that deep lol. RNG=random=undefined=good/bad luck. luck is very prevalent in this game, just accept it.
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